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AGORA hurricane prediction markets settled

On November 30 the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season came to an end and Hivemind settled prediction markets forecasting how many hurricanes there would be and how many would make landfall over the U.S.

The evolution of the AGORA prediction market forecast for the total number of hurricanes during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

The 2020 hurricane season was one of the most active ever seen. There were 30 named storms, beating the 2005 record of 28. Of the 30 storms, 13 achieved hurricane strength and 6 of those made landfall over the U.S., with a further 4 making landfall over Central America.

Hailiang Du, Assistant Professor of Statistics at Durham University, finished top in the market for the total number of hurricanes. “I usually looked at NOAA 5-day and 2-day outlooks, sometimes also European model runs as well as Canadian models,” explained Professor Du, “I tried to aggregate the model information together to form my own forecast probability distribution.”

The AGORA hurricane prediction markets demonstrate how prediction markets assimilate new information as it becomes available. Unlike surveys, which provide a snapshot of views at a point in time, prediction markets allow participants to update their positions in real time.

AGORA prediction markets could be used to generate pre-season forecasts of hurricane activity. Markets for multiple years ahead could also produce consensus predictions of the impact climate change may have on storm frequencies and intensities.

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